Roulette Wolfie Ladder 2026.10.01 - Last updated: October 1, 2026

82% win rate based on all 4,579 runs ( SEE results for more details )



update 10/01/2026: removed the waiting for a win for stage 1.5 and stage 2.5 seemed to make no notibale difference in the win rate. also added database to save the runs and display the win rate on the results page.

People keep misunderstanding what I actually built, so here is the truth in plain English: I am not a gambler — I am a programmer. I did not sit there playing 10,000 roulette games like some guy with a lucky rabbit foot. I wrote a program that runs the entire Wolfie Ladder — all 3 stages, all 21 steps — across 50 to 300 simultaneous games on a single page, and then I repeated that whole batch 10,000 times. That is how you get a real statistical picture. That is how you reach a ~78.2% win rate. Not vibes. Not superstition. Not “progressions” like Fibonacci that blow up the moment variance sneezes. The Wolfie Ladder is engineered to survive streaks, recover losses, and beat the distribution curve — and I tested it by running 10,000+ full sequences in under 30 minutes, not by hand playing one spin at a time. If people think I sat there clicking red/black like a zombie, they really do not understand who they are talking to. When i first made this system luck i guess was on my side because the first few hundred times i was playing it i was winning at a rate of 91% of the time but as i kept running it more and more times the win rate started to drop and now it is at ~80% . And here’s the part people really don’t understand: the Wolfie Ladder wins even when the game‑level win rate is losing. For example — in one of the sequences on the active tab, the system played 92 total games. Out of those:
38 wins
54 losses
Including a brutal streak where it lost every single bet from #52 through #67
That’s 16 consecutive losses in the middle of the run.
And despite that? Despite losing more games than it won? Despite eating a variance spike that would vaporize Fibonacci, Martingale, or any “pro gambler” strategy?
It still finished the sequence up +$100.
That’s the point. The Ladder doesn’t care about “win more than you lose.” It cares about sequence structure, distribution recovery, and controlled escalation. It’s engineered to survive streaks, absorb damage, and still exit the sequence profitable — even when the raw win/loss ratio looks terrible.
This is why the system works. This is why the win rate stabilizes around ~78.2% across 10,000 full trials. Not because it wins every spin — but because it wins the sequence.
THE WOLFIE LADDER SYSTEM (Step-by-Step) CLICK HERE IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE REASONING BEHIND THESE STEPS
STAGE 1:
1️⃣ Bet on two dozens, $4 each. If win → reset ladder, back to Step 1. If lose → Step 2. ( net win at this step is $4 )
2️⃣ Bet $6 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 3. ( net win at this step is $4 )
3️⃣ Bet $9 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 4. ( net win at this step is $4 )
4️⃣ Bet $13 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 5. ( net win at this step is $3 )
5️⃣ Bet $20 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 6. ( net win at this step is $4 )
6️⃣ Bet $30 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 7. ( net win at this step is $4 )
7️⃣ Bet $45 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 100, then Step 8. ( net win at this step is $4 )
STAGE 1.5:
1️⃣ Bet NOTHING. If win →GO TO STAGE 2, If lose →keep waiting for a win
STAGE 2:
8️⃣ Bet $10 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 8. Lose → Step 9. ( net win at this step is $10 )
9️⃣ Bet $16 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 10. ( net win at this step is $12 )
🔟 Bet $24 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 11. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣1️⃣ Bet $36 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 12. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣2️⃣ Bet $54 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 13. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣3️⃣ Bet $81 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 14. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣4️⃣ Bet $122 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 450, then Step 15. ( net win at this step is $13)
STAGE 2.5:
1️⃣ Bet NOTHING. If win →GO TO STAGE 3, If lose →keep waiting for a win
STAGE 3:
1️⃣5️⃣ Bet $25 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 15. Lose → Step 16.
1️⃣6️⃣ Bet $40 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 17.
1️⃣7️⃣ Bet $60 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 18.
1️⃣8️⃣ Bet $90 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 19.
1️⃣9️⃣ Bet $130 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 20.
2️⃣0️⃣ Bet $190 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 21.
2️⃣1️⃣ Bet $250 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → game over.

Roulette wheel
This system was build using 80 diffent ai agents across 8 LLM models to test the best possible system for roulette using lupopedia AI platform.
The programmer captain wolfie (Eric) was too board playing just one game at a time so programmed this to play up to 500 games all at once, that way can play thousands of times a minute and find the best stratagy that holds up . .
Want the full story? Check out the Patreon post for the complete dialog between Captain Wolfie, Grok, and the mischievous Lilith!

Probability Reality Check

American wheel dozen loss probability stays the same on every spin: about 68.42% to lose, 31.58% to hit your dozen. Even after 10 or 15 losses in a row, the next spin is still roughly 1/3 to win, 2/3 to lose. This ladder doesn't pretend the odds improve—it only adjusts stake size so that, when you do finally win, you aim to recover with the progression. The house edge is still there; this is about controlled exposure, not guaranteed profit.

500-Round Simulation (American Wheel Model)

MySQL connected to collab52_salessyntax on localhost. This run was saved to wolfie_ladder_runs.

Every time this page loads it simulates 500 games using the WOLFIE Ladder exactly as defined here or stops if you win $100+ How did you do? If the run ended in the cliff, click here to try again and generate a fresh 500-game sequence. Saved runs are listed on wolfie_ladder_results.php.

Final Bank
1,603.00
Net Units
+103.00
Wins / Losses
73 / 108
Max Step Reached
14
Run Status
Target Hit
Table Limit Hit
No
Bank Depleted
No

Below is one 500-bet run. Each roll uses the real American wheel odds (12/38 for single dozen). Every time a win hits, we reset or loop based on rules.

# Bet Wheel Result Bank Next Step Mode
1 4 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,504.00 1 Step 1
2 4 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,496.00 2 Step 1
3 6 on first dozen 2 Win 1,508.00 1 Step 2
4 4 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,500.00 2 Step 1
5 6 on first dozen 6 Win 1,512.00 1 Step 2
6 4 each on two dozens 1 Win 1,516.00 1 Step 1
7 4 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,520.00 1 Step 1
8 4 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,512.00 2 Step 1
9 6 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,506.00 3 Step 2
10 9 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,497.00 4 Step 3
11 13 on first dozen 1 Win 1,523.00 1 Step 4
12 4 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,515.00 2 Step 1
13 6 on first dozen 3 Win 1,527.00 1 Step 2
14 4 each on two dozens 18 Win 1,531.00 1 Step 1
15 4 each on two dozens 28 Loss 1,523.00 2 Step 1
16 6 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,517.00 3 Step 2
17 9 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,508.00 4 Step 3
18 13 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,495.00 5 Step 4
19 20 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,475.00 6 Step 5
20 30 on first dozen 31 Loss 1,445.00 7 Step 6
21 45 on first dozen 9 Win 1,535.00 1 Step 7
22 4 each on two dozens 29 Loss 1,527.00 2 Step 1
23 6 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,521.00 3 Step 2
24 9 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,512.00 4 Step 3
25 13 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,499.00 5 Step 4
26 20 on first dozen 7 Win 1,539.00 1 Step 5
27 4 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,531.00 2 Step 1
28 6 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,525.00 3 Step 2
29 9 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,516.00 4 Step 3
30 13 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,503.00 5 Step 4
31 20 on first dozen 00 Loss 1,483.00 6 Step 5
32 30 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,453.00 7 Step 6
33 45 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,408.00 8 Step 7
34 10 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,388.00 9 Step 8
35 16 on first dozen 1 Win 1,420.00 8 Step 9
36 10 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,430.00 8 Step 8
37 10 each on two dozens 6 Win 1,440.00 8 Step 8
38 10 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,450.00 8 Step 8
39 10 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,460.00 8 Step 8
40 10 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,440.00 9 Step 8
41 16 on first dozen 1 Win 1,472.00 8 Step 9
42 10 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,452.00 9 Step 8
43 16 on first dozen 10 Win 1,484.00 8 Step 9
44 10 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,494.00 8 Step 8
45 10 each on two dozens 00 Loss 1,474.00 9 Step 8
46 16 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,458.00 10 Step 9
47 24 on first dozen 6 Win 1,506.00 8 Step 10
48 10 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,486.00 9 Step 8
49 16 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,470.00 10 Step 9
50 24 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,446.00 11 Step 10
51 36 on first dozen 31 Loss 1,410.00 12 Step 11
52 54 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,356.00 13 Step 12
53 81 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,275.00 14 Step 13
54 122 on first dozen 1 Win 1,519.00 1 Step 14
55 4 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,511.00 2 Step 1
56 6 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,505.00 3 Step 2
57 9 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,496.00 4 Step 3
58 13 on first dozen 3 Win 1,522.00 1 Step 4
59 4 each on two dozens 7 Win 1,526.00 1 Step 1
60 4 each on two dozens 29 Loss 1,518.00 2 Step 1
61 6 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,512.00 3 Step 2
62 9 on first dozen 32 Loss 1,503.00 4 Step 3
63 13 on first dozen 4 Win 1,529.00 1 Step 4
64 4 each on two dozens 12 Win 1,533.00 1 Step 1
65 4 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,525.00 2 Step 1
66 6 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,519.00 3 Step 2
67 9 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,510.00 4 Step 3
68 13 on first dozen 31 Loss 1,497.00 5 Step 4
69 20 on first dozen 6 Win 1,537.00 1 Step 5
70 4 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,529.00 2 Step 1
71 6 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,523.00 3 Step 2
72 9 on first dozen 6 Win 1,541.00 1 Step 3
73 4 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,533.00 2 Step 1
74 6 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,527.00 3 Step 2
75 9 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,518.00 4 Step 3
76 13 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,505.00 5 Step 4
77 20 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,485.00 6 Step 5
78 30 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,455.00 7 Step 6
79 45 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,410.00 8 Step 7
80 10 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,420.00 8 Step 8
81 10 each on two dozens 28 Loss 1,400.00 9 Step 8
82 16 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,384.00 10 Step 9
83 24 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,360.00 11 Step 10
84 36 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,324.00 12 Step 11
85 54 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,270.00 13 Step 12
86 81 on first dozen 9 Win 1,432.00 8 Step 13
87 10 each on two dozens 14 Win 1,442.00 8 Step 8
88 10 each on two dozens 36 Loss 1,422.00 9 Step 8
89 16 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,406.00 10 Step 9
90 24 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,382.00 11 Step 10
91 36 on first dozen 6 Win 1,454.00 8 Step 11
92 10 each on two dozens 6 Win 1,464.00 8 Step 8
93 10 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,444.00 9 Step 8
94 16 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,428.00 10 Step 9
95 24 on first dozen 9 Win 1,476.00 8 Step 10
96 10 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,486.00 8 Step 8
97 10 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,466.00 9 Step 8
98 16 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,450.00 10 Step 9
99 24 on first dozen 9 Win 1,498.00 8 Step 10
100 10 each on two dozens 36 Loss 1,478.00 9 Step 8
101 16 on first dozen 12 Win 1,510.00 8 Step 9
102 10 each on two dozens 16 Win 1,520.00 1 Step 8
103 4 each on two dozens 26 Loss 1,512.00 2 Step 1
104 6 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,506.00 3 Step 2
105 9 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,497.00 4 Step 3
106 13 on first dozen 3 Win 1,523.00 1 Step 4
107 4 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,527.00 1 Step 1
108 4 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,531.00 1 Step 1
109 4 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,535.00 1 Step 1
110 4 each on two dozens 14 Win 1,539.00 1 Step 1
111 4 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,531.00 2 Step 1
112 6 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,525.00 3 Step 2
113 9 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,516.00 4 Step 3
114 13 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,503.00 5 Step 4
115 20 on first dozen 00 Loss 1,483.00 6 Step 5
116 30 on first dozen 4 Win 1,543.00 1 Step 6
117 4 each on two dozens 20 Win 1,547.00 1 Step 1
118 4 each on two dozens 15 Win 1,551.00 1 Step 1
119 4 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,543.00 2 Step 1
120 6 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,537.00 3 Step 2
121 9 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,528.00 4 Step 3
122 13 on first dozen 12 Win 1,554.00 1 Step 4
123 4 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,546.00 2 Step 1
124 6 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,540.00 3 Step 2
125 9 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,531.00 4 Step 3
126 13 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,518.00 5 Step 4
127 20 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,498.00 6 Step 5
128 30 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,468.00 7 Step 6
129 45 on first dozen 6 Win 1,558.00 1 Step 7
130 4 each on two dozens 30 Loss 1,550.00 2 Step 1
131 6 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,544.00 3 Step 2
132 9 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,535.00 4 Step 3
133 13 on first dozen 31 Loss 1,522.00 5 Step 4
134 20 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,502.00 6 Step 5
135 30 on first dozen 1 Win 1,562.00 1 Step 6
136 4 each on two dozens 00 Loss 1,554.00 2 Step 1
137 6 on first dozen 3 Win 1,566.00 1 Step 2
138 4 each on two dozens 22 Win 1,570.00 1 Step 1
139 4 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,562.00 2 Step 1
140 6 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,556.00 3 Step 2
141 9 on first dozen 7 Win 1,574.00 1 Step 3
142 4 each on two dozens 11 Win 1,578.00 1 Step 1
143 4 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,570.00 2 Step 1
144 6 on first dozen 11 Win 1,582.00 1 Step 2
145 4 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,586.00 1 Step 1
146 4 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,590.00 1 Step 1
147 4 each on two dozens 29 Loss 1,582.00 2 Step 1
148 6 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,576.00 3 Step 2
149 9 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,567.00 4 Step 3
150 13 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,554.00 5 Step 4
151 20 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,534.00 6 Step 5
152 30 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,504.00 7 Step 6
153 45 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,459.00 8 Step 7
154 10 each on two dozens 26 Loss 1,439.00 9 Step 8
155 16 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,423.00 10 Step 9
156 24 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,399.00 11 Step 10
157 36 on first dozen 7 Win 1,471.00 8 Step 11
158 10 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,481.00 8 Step 8
159 10 each on two dozens 19 Win 1,491.00 8 Step 8
160 10 each on two dozens 20 Win 1,501.00 8 Step 8
161 10 each on two dozens 18 Win 1,511.00 8 Step 8
162 10 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,491.00 9 Step 8
163 16 on first dozen 10 Win 1,523.00 8 Step 9
164 10 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,503.00 9 Step 8
165 16 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,487.00 10 Step 9
166 24 on first dozen 2 Win 1,535.00 8 Step 10
167 10 each on two dozens 16 Win 1,545.00 8 Step 8
168 10 each on two dozens 00 Loss 1,525.00 9 Step 8
169 16 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,509.00 10 Step 9
170 24 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,485.00 11 Step 10
171 36 on first dozen 4 Win 1,557.00 8 Step 11
172 10 each on two dozens 7 Win 1,567.00 1 Step 8
173 4 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,571.00 1 Step 1
174 4 each on two dozens 12 Win 1,575.00 1 Step 1
175 4 each on two dozens 23 Win 1,579.00 1 Step 1
176 4 each on two dozens 22 Win 1,583.00 1 Step 1
177 4 each on two dozens 18 Win 1,587.00 1 Step 1
178 4 each on two dozens 11 Win 1,591.00 1 Step 1
179 4 each on two dozens 20 Win 1,595.00 1 Step 1
180 4 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,599.00 1 Step 1
181 4 each on two dozens 4 Win 1,603.00 1 Step 1

All the Math and Lilith and Wolfie Arguing About the System (Updated Canon)

American roulette: 38 numbers. Dozens pay 2:1. Sequence win chance per ladder is 96.22%. Sequence-failure (7-loss bust) is 3.78%.

Stage 1 (correct probabilities)

Step 1

Bet: two dozens, $4 each (total $8). Lose if the ball lands in the non-covered dozen or 0/00 → 14 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 1:

P(L1) ≈ 36.84%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → go to Step 2.

Step 2

Bet: $6 on the first dozen. Lose if the ball is not in that dozen → 26 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 2 (given you are here):

P(L2) = 68.42%

Probability of losing Steps 1 and 2 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2) = 25.21%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 3.

Step 3

Same loss probability as Step 2.

Probability of losing Steps 1–3 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2 ∩ L3) = 17.25%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 4.

Step 4

Same loss probability again.

Probability of losing Steps 1–4 in a row:

P(L1…L4) = 11.80%

Win → net +$3, reset. Lose → Step 5.

Step 5

Probability of losing Steps 1–5 in a row:

P(L1…L5) = 8.07%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 6.

Step 6

Probability of losing Steps 1–6 in a row:

P(L1…L6) = 5.52%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 7.

Step 7

Probability of losing Steps 1–7 in a row (full sequence bust):

P(L1…L7) = 3.78%

This is the true sequence-failure probability.

P(sequence wins at least once) = 1 − 0.0378 ≈ 0.9622

So the chance of winning the sequence once is 96.22%.

We stop at Step 7 because going to Step 8 would only reduce the sequence-failure probability from about 3.78% to roughly 2.6% — small gain, big extra risk in bet size.

You are now down a total of $131 across the whole ladder (4+4+6+9+13+20+30+45 = 131). Stage 2 is only designed to recover $100, not the full $131, on purpose. By capping the recovery target at $100, the system only needs 10 successful sequences instead of extending the ladder to 13 sequences, which would chase the full $131.

Mathematically, the chance of winning all 10 recovery sequences is:

P(10 wins) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684 (68.4%)

If you tried to recover the entire $131 and needed 13 sequences:

P(13 wins) = (0.9622)13 ≈ 0.609 (60.9%)

The recovery target stays at $100 so the ladder is not stretched to 13 steps. A 68.4% chance over 10 sequences is better than a 60.9% chance over 13.

Compounding sequences

Compounding sequences means multiplying the probability of success across repeated independent attempts. Since the chance of winning a single sequence is 96.22%, the chance of winning it multiple times is (0.9622)n.

That is why Stage 1 succeeds only about 38% of the time: a high per-sequence win rate drops sharply when compounded many times.

Stage 1: 25 sequences to win $100

Probability all 25 sequences succeed (no 7-loss bust):

P(Stage 1 success) = p25 ≈ 0.962225 ≈ 0.38 (38%)

About a 38% chance to clear Stage 1 cleanly, not 48%.

Stage 1.5

Bet: nothing. Wait for a hit on the first dozen before engaging again, to avoid walking straight into a long dry spell.

The “14 misses in a row” event:

P(miss first dozen 14 times) = (26/38)14

That is tiny, but not zero. The 0.22% figure is in the right ballpark: very rare, not impossible.

Stage 2 (10 sequences)

The system has three stages because even though a single sequence wins 96.22% of the time, stacking many sequences makes a failure streak likely. Stage 1 assumes that somewhere inside those 25 attempts you might hit the 3.78% disaster run, so there is a more aggressive recovery layer.

Stage 2 is designed to win back the $100 loss in 10 successful sequences:

(0.9622)10 = 0.6840

Stage 2 has about a 68% chance of recovering the loss and letting the ladder continue. In play: you win about $50–$60 during normal operation, then eventually hit the rare failure streak and drop $100, then Stage 2 steps in with higher aggression and a shorter climb. Stage 1 succeeds about 38% of the time over 25 sequences; Stage 2 succeeds about 68% of the time over 10 sequences.

Stage 2 uses the same ladder structure as Stage 1 — one two-dozen entry followed by six single-dozen climbs — but the goal is recovery, not profit. Per-sequence success is still p ≈ 0.9622:

P(Stage 2 success) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684

The odds of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2 are based on two independent exposures to the same 7-loss bust pattern:

Independence means you multiply. It does not prevent multiplication.

P(lose both) = P(Stage 1 fails) × P(Stage 2 fails)

P(lose both) = 0.619 × 0.316 ≈ 0.195

About a 19.5% chance of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2. About an 80.5% chance of recovering and continuing.

Stage 2.5

Same idea: pause, wait out variance, do not immediately re-engage into another ladder during a brutal dry spell.

Stage 3 (22 sequences)

Stage 3 is the deep-recovery layer — the nuclear option after both Stage 1 and Stage 2 fail. At this point you are down about $550, and Stage 3 uses the same ladder structure, but now you need 22 successful sequences to fully recover and reset.

Per-sequence success rate:

p = 0.9622

Probability all 22 sequences succeed:

P(Stage 3 success) = (0.9622)22 ≈ 0.41

Stage 3 success ≈ 41%. About a 41% chance of recovering the remaining loss and allowing the system to continue even after both earlier stages have failed.

Updated combined probability tree (Stage 3 = 22 sequences)

Stage 1 tries to win outright. If it fails, Stage 2 attempts recovery. If that fails, Stage 3 is the final recovery attempt.

Overall survival probability. The system survives (recovers and continues) if any stage succeeds:

P(overall success) = S1 + F1 · S2 + F1 · F2 · S3

= 0.381 + (0.619 · 0.684) + (0.619 · 0.316 · 0.41)

= 0.381 + 0.423 + 0.080 ≈ 0.884

Updated overall survival ≈ 88.4%.

Total collapse only happens if all three stages fail:

P(total collapse) = F1 · F2 · F3 = 0.619 · 0.316 · 0.59 ≈ 0.115

Updated collapse rate ≈ 11.5%.

Given the corrected math, the full three-stage ladder should survive about 88.4% of the time. That is the theoretical probability when Stage 1, Stage 2, and the corrected 22-sequence Stage 3 are treated as one recovery tree. In large-scale simulations — 10,000 full attempts — the real results fall between 78% on the low end and 91% on the high end. That spread is normal: the theoretical survival rate is ~88%, but variance over thousands of trials will always produce fluctuations, especially because each collapse is rare but extremely impactful. The math describes the long-run expectation; the simulator shows the real-world distribution, which consistently lands between 78% and 91%, exactly what you would expect from a system with a theoretical success rate in the high 80s and occasional deep failures that pull the average down.