Roulette Wolfie Ladder version C - Last updated: October 2, 2026

86% win rate based on all 1,691 runs ( SEE results for more details )



update 10/01/2026: removed the waiting for a win for stage 1.5 and stage 2.5 seemed to make no notibale difference in the win rate. also added database to save the runs and display the win rate on the results page. Also removed step 7 to keep the system simple and fast we have a 5% chance of hitting this but we will recover it. see version A for having that step included back in.

update 10/02/2026: removed step 14 to keep the system simple and fast we have a 5% chance of hitting this but we will recover it. see version B for having that step included back in. Also added step 22 as a last ditch effort to recover losses and if loosing that step and not bankrupt reset the ladder and start over on stage 3

People keep misunderstanding what I actually built, so here is the truth in plain English: I am not a gambler — I am a programmer. I did not sit there playing 10,000 roulette games like some guy with a lucky rabbit foot. I wrote a program that runs the entire Wolfie Ladder — all 3 stages, all 21 steps — across 50 to 300 simultaneous games on a single page, and then I repeated that whole batch 10,000 times. That is how you get a real statistical picture. That is how you reach a ~90% win rate. Not vibes. Not superstition. Not “progressions” like Fibonacci that blow up the moment variance sneezes. The Wolfie Ladder is engineered to survive streaks, recover losses, and beat the distribution curve — and I tested it by running 10,000+ full sequences in under 30 minutes, not by hand playing one spin at a time. If people think I sat there clicking red/black like a zombie, they really do not understand who they are talking to. When i first made this system luck i guess was on my side because the first few hundred times i was playing it i was winning at a rate of 91% of the time but as i kept running it more and more times the win rate started to drop and now it is at ~80% . And here’s the part people really don’t understand: the Wolfie Ladder wins even when the game‑level win rate is losing. For example — in one of the sequences on the active tab, the system played 92 total games. Out of those:
38 wins
54 losses
Including a brutal streak where it lost every single bet from #52 through #67
That’s 16 consecutive losses in the middle of the run.
And despite that? Despite losing more games than it won? Despite eating a variance spike that would vaporize Fibonacci, Martingale, or any “pro gambler” strategy?
It still finished the sequence up +$100.
That’s the point. The Ladder doesn’t care about “win more than you lose.” It cares about sequence structure, distribution recovery, and controlled escalation. It’s engineered to survive streaks, absorb damage, and still exit the sequence profitable — even when the raw win/loss ratio looks terrible.
This is why the system works. This is why the win rate stabilizes around ~78.2% across 10,000 full trials. Not because it wins every spin — but because it wins the sequence.
THE WOLFIE LADDER SYSTEM (Step-by-Step) CLICK HERE IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE REASONING BEHIND THESE STEPS
STAGE 1:
1️⃣ Bet on two dozens, $4 each. If win → reset ladder, back to Step 1. If lose → Step 2. ( net win at this step is $4 )
2️⃣ Bet $6 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 3. ( net win at this step is $4 )
3️⃣ Bet $9 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 4. ( net win at this step is $4 )
4️⃣ Bet $13 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 5. ( net win at this step is $3 )
5️⃣ Bet $20 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 6. ( net win at this step is $4 )
6️⃣ Bet $30 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 90, then Step 8. ( net win at this step is $4 )
7️⃣(Removed in Version B. It only increased Stage‑1 probability by ~2%, but added a heavy 45‑unit cost. Cutting it keeps the system simpler, faster, and far less volatile. We still have a ~5% chance of hitting this loss, but the ladder easily recovers it.)
STAGE 2:
8️⃣ Bet $10 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 8. Lose → Step 9. ( net win at this step is $10 )
9️⃣ Bet $16 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 10. ( net win at this step is $12 )
🔟 Bet $24 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 11. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣1️⃣ Bet $36 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 12. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣2️⃣ Bet $54 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 13. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣3️⃣ Bet $81 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 300, then Step 15. ( net win at this step is $12 )
1️⃣4️⃣ (Removed in Version C. It only increased Stage‑2 probability by ~2%, but added a heavy 122‑unit cost.
STAGE 3:
1️⃣5️⃣ Bet $25 on two dozens. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 15. Lose → Step 16.
1️⃣6️⃣ Bet $40 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 17.
1️⃣7️⃣ Bet $60 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 18.
1️⃣8️⃣ Bet $90 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 19.
1️⃣9️⃣ Bet $130 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 20.
2️⃣0️⃣ Bet $190 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 21.
2️⃣1️⃣ Bet $250 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 22.
2️⃣2️⃣ Bet $250 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 15.

Roulette wheel
This system was build using 80 diffent ai agents across 8 LLM models to test the best possible system for roulette using lupopedia AI platform.
The programmer captain wolfie (Eric) was too board playing just one game at a time so programmed this to play up to 500 games all at once, that way can play thousands of times a minute and find the best stratagy that holds up . .
Want the full story? Check out the Patreon post for the complete dialog between Captain Wolfie, Grok, and the mischievous Lilith!

Why my versions are A, B, C instead of major.minor.patch Because the traditional versioning system — major.minor.patch — is meaningless for what I’m doing here. I’m not shipping software releases. I’m iterating behavioral variants of a probability engine. Each version (A, B, C… all the way to ZZ if I want) represents a distinct ladder logic, a distinct recovery pattern, a distinct volatility profile, and a distinct mathematical personality. These aren’t “patches.” These aren’t “minor updates.” These are forks of logic. Version A behaves one way. Version B behaves another way. Version C might remove a step, add a step, rebalance a stage, or change the volatility curve entirely. Using semantic versioning (4.0.96, 4.0.97, etc.) would imply these are incremental changes to the same system — but they’re not. They’re parallel universes. So I use lettered versions because: They’re simple They’re human-readable They reflect behavior, not “patch level” They let me branch logic infinitely (A → B → C → … → Z → AA → AB → … → ZZ) They match how I actually think about the system In other words: Version A is a creature. Version B is a different creature. Version C is another creature. Letters make more sense for creatures than numbers.

Probability Reality Check

American wheel dozen loss probability stays the same on every spin: about 68.42% to lose, 31.58% to hit your dozen. Even after 10 or 15 losses in a row, the next spin is still roughly 1/3 to win, 2/3 to lose. This ladder doesn't pretend the odds improve—it only adjusts stake size so that, when you do finally win, you aim to recover with the progression. The house edge is still there; this is about controlled exposure, not guaranteed profit.

500-Round Simulation (American Wheel Model)

MySQL connected to collab52_salessyntax on localhost. This run was saved to wolfie_ladder_runs.

Every time this page loads it simulates 500 games using the WOLFIE Ladder exactly as defined here or stops if you win $100+ How did you do? If the run ended in the cliff, click here to try again and generate a fresh 500-game sequence. Saved runs are listed on wolfie_ladder_results.php.

Final Bank
1,600.00
Net Units
+100.00
Wins / Losses
78 / 83
Max Step Reached
22
Run Status
Target Hit
Table Limit Hit
No
Bank Depleted
No

Below is one 500-bet run. Each roll uses the real American wheel odds (12/38 for single dozen). Every time a win hits, we reset or loop based on rules.

# Bet Wheel Result Bank Next Step Mode
1 4 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,504.00 1 Step 1
2 4 each on two dozens 15 Win 1,508.00 1 Step 1
3 4 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,500.00 2 Step 1
4 6 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,494.00 3 Step 2
5 9 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,485.00 4 Step 3
6 13 on first dozen 00 Loss 1,472.00 5 Step 4
7 20 on first dozen 00 Loss 1,452.00 6 Step 5
8 30 on first dozen 11 Win 1,512.00 1 Step 6
9 4 each on two dozens 20 Win 1,516.00 1 Step 1
10 4 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,508.00 2 Step 1
11 6 on first dozen 7 Win 1,520.00 1 Step 2
12 4 each on two dozens 6 Win 1,524.00 1 Step 1
13 4 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,528.00 1 Step 1
14 4 each on two dozens 10 Win 1,532.00 1 Step 1
15 4 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,524.00 2 Step 1
16 6 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,518.00 3 Step 2
17 9 on first dozen 11 Win 1,536.00 1 Step 3
18 4 each on two dozens 31 Loss 1,528.00 2 Step 1
19 6 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,522.00 3 Step 2
20 9 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,513.00 4 Step 3
21 13 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,500.00 5 Step 4
22 20 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,480.00 6 Step 5
23 30 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,450.00 8 Step 6
24 10 each on two dozens 3 Win 1,460.00 8 Step 8
25 10 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,470.00 8 Step 8
26 10 each on two dozens 16 Win 1,480.00 8 Step 8
27 10 each on two dozens 25 Loss 1,460.00 9 Step 8
28 16 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,444.00 10 Step 9
29 24 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,420.00 11 Step 10
30 36 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,384.00 12 Step 11
31 54 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,330.00 13 Step 12
32 81 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,249.00 15 Step 13
33 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,199.00 16 Step 15
34 40 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,159.00 17 Step 16
35 60 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,099.00 18 Step 17
36 90 on first dozen 3 Win 1,279.00 15 Step 18
37 25 each on two dozens 19 Win 1,304.00 15 Step 15
38 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,254.00 16 Step 15
39 40 on first dozen 1 Win 1,334.00 15 Step 16
40 25 each on two dozens 35 Loss 1,284.00 16 Step 15
41 40 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,244.00 17 Step 16
42 60 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,184.00 18 Step 17
43 90 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,094.00 19 Step 18
44 130 on first dozen 10 Win 1,354.00 15 Step 19
45 25 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,304.00 16 Step 15
46 40 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,264.00 17 Step 16
47 60 on first dozen 12 Win 1,384.00 15 Step 17
48 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,409.00 15 Step 15
49 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,434.00 15 Step 15
50 25 each on two dozens 29 Loss 1,384.00 16 Step 15
51 40 on first dozen 11 Win 1,464.00 15 Step 16
52 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,414.00 16 Step 15
53 40 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,374.00 17 Step 16
54 60 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,314.00 18 Step 17
55 90 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,224.00 19 Step 18
56 130 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,094.00 20 Step 19
57 190 on first dozen 17 Loss 904.00 21 Step 20
58 250 on first dozen 31 Loss 654.00 22 Step 21
59 250 on first dozen 24 Loss 404.00 15 Step 22
60 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 354.00 16 Step 15
61 40 on first dozen 26 Loss 314.00 17 Step 16
62 60 on first dozen 6 Win 434.00 15 Step 17
63 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 384.00 16 Step 15
64 40 on first dozen 29 Loss 344.00 17 Step 16
65 60 on first dozen 2 Win 464.00 15 Step 17
66 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 489.00 15 Step 15
67 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 514.00 15 Step 15
68 25 each on two dozens 4 Win 539.00 15 Step 15
69 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 564.00 15 Step 15
70 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 514.00 16 Step 15
71 40 on first dozen 4 Win 594.00 15 Step 16
72 25 each on two dozens 10 Win 619.00 15 Step 15
73 25 each on two dozens 18 Win 644.00 15 Step 15
74 25 each on two dozens 00 Loss 594.00 16 Step 15
75 40 on first dozen 7 Win 674.00 15 Step 16
76 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 624.00 16 Step 15
77 40 on first dozen 1 Win 704.00 15 Step 16
78 25 each on two dozens 30 Loss 654.00 16 Step 15
79 40 on first dozen 00 Loss 614.00 17 Step 16
80 60 on first dozen 12 Win 734.00 15 Step 17
81 25 each on two dozens 28 Loss 684.00 16 Step 15
82 40 on first dozen 28 Loss 644.00 17 Step 16
83 60 on first dozen 35 Loss 584.00 18 Step 17
84 90 on first dozen 17 Loss 494.00 19 Step 18
85 130 on first dozen 34 Loss 364.00 20 Step 19
86 190 on first dozen 9 Win 744.00 15 Step 20
87 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 769.00 15 Step 15
88 25 each on two dozens 21 Win 794.00 15 Step 15
89 25 each on two dozens 16 Win 819.00 15 Step 15
90 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 769.00 16 Step 15
91 40 on first dozen 19 Loss 729.00 17 Step 16
92 60 on first dozen 23 Loss 669.00 18 Step 17
93 90 on first dozen 25 Loss 579.00 19 Step 18
94 130 on first dozen 23 Loss 449.00 20 Step 19
95 190 on first dozen 7 Win 829.00 15 Step 20
96 25 each on two dozens 6 Win 854.00 15 Step 15
97 25 each on two dozens 15 Win 879.00 15 Step 15
98 25 each on two dozens 26 Loss 829.00 16 Step 15
99 40 on first dozen 9 Win 909.00 15 Step 16
100 25 each on two dozens 14 Win 934.00 15 Step 15
101 25 each on two dozens 33 Loss 884.00 16 Step 15
102 40 on first dozen 32 Loss 844.00 17 Step 16
103 60 on first dozen 4 Win 964.00 15 Step 17
104 25 each on two dozens 9 Win 989.00 15 Step 15
105 25 each on two dozens 18 Win 1,014.00 15 Step 15
106 25 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,039.00 15 Step 15
107 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,064.00 15 Step 15
108 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,014.00 16 Step 15
109 40 on first dozen 0 Loss 974.00 17 Step 16
110 60 on first dozen 25 Loss 914.00 18 Step 17
111 90 on first dozen 10 Win 1,094.00 15 Step 18
112 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 1,119.00 15 Step 15
113 25 each on two dozens 24 Win 1,144.00 15 Step 15
114 25 each on two dozens 21 Win 1,169.00 15 Step 15
115 25 each on two dozens 0 Loss 1,119.00 16 Step 15
116 40 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,079.00 17 Step 16
117 60 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,019.00 18 Step 17
118 90 on first dozen 36 Loss 929.00 19 Step 18
119 130 on first dozen 32 Loss 799.00 20 Step 19
120 190 on first dozen 33 Loss 609.00 21 Step 20
121 250 on first dozen 9 Win 1,109.00 15 Step 21
122 25 each on two dozens 6 Win 1,134.00 15 Step 15
123 25 each on two dozens 20 Win 1,159.00 15 Step 15
124 25 each on two dozens 33 Loss 1,109.00 16 Step 15
125 40 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,069.00 17 Step 16
126 60 on first dozen 6 Win 1,189.00 15 Step 17
127 25 each on two dozens 14 Win 1,214.00 15 Step 15
128 25 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,239.00 15 Step 15
129 25 each on two dozens 19 Win 1,264.00 15 Step 15
130 25 each on two dozens 34 Loss 1,214.00 16 Step 15
131 40 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,174.00 17 Step 16
132 60 on first dozen 10 Win 1,294.00 15 Step 17
133 25 each on two dozens 7 Win 1,319.00 15 Step 15
134 25 each on two dozens 36 Loss 1,269.00 16 Step 15
135 40 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,229.00 17 Step 16
136 60 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,169.00 18 Step 17
137 90 on first dozen 32 Loss 1,079.00 19 Step 18
138 130 on first dozen 16 Loss 949.00 20 Step 19
139 190 on first dozen 7 Win 1,329.00 15 Step 20
140 25 each on two dozens 12 Win 1,354.00 15 Step 15
141 25 each on two dozens 9 Win 1,379.00 15 Step 15
142 25 each on two dozens 12 Win 1,404.00 15 Step 15
143 25 each on two dozens 14 Win 1,429.00 15 Step 15
144 25 each on two dozens 32 Loss 1,379.00 16 Step 15
145 40 on first dozen 3 Win 1,459.00 15 Step 16
146 25 each on two dozens 23 Win 1,484.00 15 Step 15
147 25 each on two dozens 27 Loss 1,434.00 16 Step 15
148 40 on first dozen 7 Win 1,514.00 15 Step 16
149 25 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,539.00 15 Step 15
150 25 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,564.00 1 Step 15
151 4 each on two dozens 1 Win 1,568.00 1 Step 1
152 4 each on two dozens 17 Win 1,572.00 1 Step 1
153 4 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,576.00 1 Step 1
154 4 each on two dozens 19 Win 1,580.00 1 Step 1
155 4 each on two dozens 5 Win 1,584.00 1 Step 1
156 4 each on two dozens 2 Win 1,588.00 1 Step 1
157 4 each on two dozens 8 Win 1,592.00 1 Step 1
158 4 each on two dozens 29 Loss 1,584.00 2 Step 1
159 6 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,578.00 3 Step 2
160 9 on first dozen 2 Win 1,596.00 1 Step 3
161 4 each on two dozens 7 Win 1,600.00 1 Step 1

All the Math and Lilith and Wolfie Arguing About the System (Updated Canon)

American roulette: 38 numbers. Dozens pay 2:1. Sequence win chance per ladder is 96.22%. Sequence-failure (7-loss bust) is 3.78%.

Stage 1 (correct probabilities)

Step 1

Bet: two dozens, $4 each (total $8). Lose if the ball lands in the non-covered dozen or 0/00 → 14 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 1:

P(L1) ≈ 36.84%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → go to Step 2.

Step 2

Bet: $6 on the first dozen. Lose if the ball is not in that dozen → 26 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 2 (given you are here):

P(L2) = 68.42%

Probability of losing Steps 1 and 2 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2) = 25.21%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 3.

Step 3

Same loss probability as Step 2.

Probability of losing Steps 1–3 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2 ∩ L3) = 17.25%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 4.

Step 4

Same loss probability again.

Probability of losing Steps 1–4 in a row:

P(L1…L4) = 11.80%

Win → net +$3, reset. Lose → Step 5.

Step 5

Probability of losing Steps 1–5 in a row:

P(L1…L5) = 8.07%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 6.

Step 6

Probability of losing Steps 1–6 in a row:

P(L1…L6) = 5.52%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 7.

Step 7

Probability of losing Steps 1–7 in a row (full sequence bust):

P(L1…L7) = 3.78%

This is the true sequence-failure probability.

P(sequence wins at least once) = 1 − 0.0378 ≈ 0.9622

So the chance of winning the sequence once is 96.22%.

We stop at Step 7 because going to Step 8 would only reduce the sequence-failure probability from about 3.78% to roughly 2.6% — small gain, big extra risk in bet size.

You are now down a total of $131 across the whole ladder (4+4+6+9+13+20+30+45 = 131). Stage 2 is only designed to recover $100, not the full $131, on purpose. By capping the recovery target at $100, the system only needs 10 successful sequences instead of extending the ladder to 13 sequences, which would chase the full $131.

Mathematically, the chance of winning all 10 recovery sequences is:

P(10 wins) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684 (68.4%)

If you tried to recover the entire $131 and needed 13 sequences:

P(13 wins) = (0.9622)13 ≈ 0.609 (60.9%)

The recovery target stays at $100 so the ladder is not stretched to 13 steps. A 68.4% chance over 10 sequences is better than a 60.9% chance over 13.

Compounding sequences

Compounding sequences means multiplying the probability of success across repeated independent attempts. Since the chance of winning a single sequence is 96.22%, the chance of winning it multiple times is (0.9622)n.

That is why Stage 1 succeeds only about 38% of the time: a high per-sequence win rate drops sharply when compounded many times.

Stage 1: 25 sequences to win $100

Probability all 25 sequences succeed (no 7-loss bust):

P(Stage 1 success) = p25 ≈ 0.962225 ≈ 0.38 (38%)

About a 38% chance to clear Stage 1 cleanly, not 48%.

Stage 2 (10 sequences)

The system has three stages because even though a single sequence wins 96.22% of the time, stacking many sequences makes a failure streak likely. Stage 1 assumes that somewhere inside those 25 attempts you might hit the 3.78% disaster run, so there is a more aggressive recovery layer.

Stage 2 is designed to win back the $100 loss in 10 successful sequences:

(0.9622)10 = 0.6840

Stage 2 has about a 68% chance of recovering the loss and letting the ladder continue. In play: you win about $50–$60 during normal operation, then eventually hit the rare failure streak and drop $100, then Stage 2 steps in with higher aggression and a shorter climb. Stage 1 succeeds about 38% of the time over 25 sequences; Stage 2 succeeds about 68% of the time over 10 sequences.

Stage 2 uses the same ladder structure as Stage 1 — one two-dozen entry followed by six single-dozen climbs — but the goal is recovery, not profit. Per-sequence success is still p ≈ 0.9622:

P(Stage 2 success) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684

The odds of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2 are based on two independent exposures to the same 7-loss bust pattern:

Independence means you multiply. It does not prevent multiplication.

P(lose both) = P(Stage 1 fails) × P(Stage 2 fails)

P(lose both) = 0.619 × 0.316 ≈ 0.195

About a 19.5% chance of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2. About an 80.5% chance of recovering and continuing.

Stage 3 (22 sequences)

Stage 3 is the deep-recovery layer — the nuclear option after both Stage 1 and Stage 2 fail. At this point you are down about $550, and Stage 3 uses the same ladder structure, but now you need 22 successful sequences to fully recover and reset.

Per-sequence success rate:

p = 0.9622

Probability all 22 sequences succeed:

P(Stage 3 success) = (0.9622)22 ≈ 0.41

Stage 3 success ≈ 41%. About a 41% chance of recovering the remaining loss and allowing the system to continue even after both earlier stages have failed.

Updated combined probability tree (Stage 3 = 22 sequences)

Stage 1 tries to win outright. If it fails, Stage 2 attempts recovery. If that fails, Stage 3 is the final recovery attempt.

Overall survival probability. The system survives (recovers and continues) if any stage succeeds:

P(overall success) = S1 + F1 · S2 + F1 · F2 · S3

= 0.381 + (0.619 · 0.684) + (0.619 · 0.316 · 0.41)

= 0.381 + 0.423 + 0.080 ≈ 0.884

Updated overall survival ≈ 88.4%.

Total collapse only happens if all three stages fail:

P(total collapse) = F1 · F2 · F3 = 0.619 · 0.316 · 0.59 ≈ 0.115

Updated collapse rate ≈ 11.5%.

Given the corrected math, the full three-stage ladder should survive about 88.4% of the time. That is the theoretical probability when Stage 1, Stage 2, and the corrected 22-sequence Stage 3 are treated as one recovery tree. In large-scale simulations — 10,000 full attempts — the real results fall between 78% on the low end and 91% on the high end. That spread is normal: the theoretical survival rate is ~88%, but variance over thousands of trials will always produce fluctuations, especially because each collapse is rare but extremely impactful. The math describes the long-run expectation; the simulator shows the real-world distribution, which consistently lands between 78% and 91%, exactly what you would expect from a system with a theoretical success rate in the high 80s and occasional deep failures that pull the average down.