Roulette Wolfie Ladder version Y - Last updated: October 6, 2026

88% win rate based on all 3,771 runs ( SEE results for more details )


I have made about 18 different versions of the Wolfie Ladder and have them all competing to see which is the best version. See the results page to see which is doing the best. When you go to lupopedia.com/wolfie_ladder/ the current winner is shown.

This is the version where i am trying to keep the bets for a 3 to 250 table . there is a version T for a 10 to 500 table see version T for more details.

Version Y is version H, except the two-dozen bet in the first part of stage 1, stage 2, and stage 3 has been converted to a single dozen bet. Counterintuitively, adding a 7th bet in stage 1 or stage 2 seemed to do worse in trials. Compounded probability increased about 3%, but the trials showed it did not work as well. When version Y looses it usally feels like a crime because you have to loose 6+ times in row 3 times and 7 times in row at the end of the sequence while playing which feels like lady luck is mad at you.

People keep misunderstanding what I actually built, so here is the truth in plain English: I am not a gambler — I am a programmer. I did not sit there playing 10,000 roulette games like some guy with a lucky rabbit foot. I wrote a program that runs the entire Wolfie Ladder — all 4 stages, all 28 steps — across 50 to 300 simultaneous games on a single page, and then I repeated that whole batch 10,000 times. That is how you get a real statistical picture. That is how you reach a ~90% win rate. Not vibes. Not superstition. Not “progressions” like Fibonacci that blow up the moment variance sneezes. The Wolfie Ladder is engineered to survive streaks, recover losses, and beat the distribution curve — and I tested it by running 10,000+ full sequences in under 30 minutes, not by hand playing one spin at a time. If people think I sat there clicking red/black like a zombie, they really do not understand who they are talking to. When i first made this system luck i guess was on my side because the first few hundred times i was playing it i was winning at a rate of 91% of the time but as i kept running it more and more times the win rate started to drop and now it is between ~83% and ~90% . And here’s the part people really don’t understand: the Wolfie Ladder wins even when the game‑level win rate is losing. For example — in one of the sequences, the system played 92 total games. Out of those:
38 wins
54 losses
Including a brutal streak where it lost every single bet from #52 through #67
That’s 16 consecutive losses in the middle of the run.
And despite that? Despite losing more games than it won? Despite eating a variance spike that would vaporize Fibonacci, Martingale, or any “pro gambler” strategy?
It still finished the sequence up +$100.
That’s the point. The Ladder doesn’t care about “win more than you lose.” It cares about sequence structure, distribution recovery, and controlled escalation. It’s engineered to survive streaks, absorb damage, and still exit the sequence profitable — even when the raw win/loss ratio looks terrible.
This is why the system works. This is why the win rate stabilizes around ~86.2%+ across 10,000 full trials. Not because it wins every spin — but because it wins the sequence. Other winning version of the wolfie ladder are version A, version B, version C, version D, and version X. version D has a win rate of 86.2% at 10,000 runs. version X has a win rate of 88.2% at 300 runs. ( it is new)


update 10/02/2026: removed step 14 to keep the system simple and fast we have a 5% chance of hitting this but we will recover it. see version B for having that step included back in. removed step 22 ( see version C for having that step included back in) if loosing step 21 and not bankrupt reset the ladder and start over on stage 3 . Reason being that step 22 had a 31% chance of winning but the chances of winning the stages in the ladder 10 times is 68% . you have a better chance of getting the money back doing the ladder.

update 10/04/2026: added stage 4 to the ladder see version D for having stage 3 repeated which what it was doing before AND it has a better win rate than version X so far with a win rate of 86.2%

update 10/06/2026: changed first bet to be single dozen bets instead of 2 dozen bets see version H for having that be 2 dozen bets . updated the bank needed to reset to add 222 instead o f 300 at end of stage 2 as the bank needed at the end of stage 2 is a loss of 221 and the 222 is a angel number :)

THE WOLFIE LADDER SYSTEM (Step-by-Step)

CLICK HERE IF YOU WANT TO KNOW THE REASONING BEHIND THESE STEPS
STAGE 1:
1️⃣ Bet $4 on the first dozen. If win → reset ladder, back to Step 1. If lose → Step 2. ( net win at this step is $8 )
2️⃣ Bet $6 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 3. ( net win at this step is $8 )
3️⃣ Bet $9 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 4. ( net win at this step is $8 )
4️⃣ Bet $13 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 5. ( net win at this step is $7 )
5️⃣ Bet $20 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → Step 6. ( net win at this step is $8 )
6️⃣ Bet $30 on the first dozen. Win → reset. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 80, then Step 7. ( net win at this step is $8 )
7️⃣ Bet $0 on the first dozen and wait for a hit. This is a sequence reset, not a progression bet. The next bets are a new sequence, and that sequence has to start over before it counts. Win → Step 8. A miss stays on Step 7.
STAGE 2:
8️⃣ Bet $10 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 8. Lose → Step 9. ( net win at this step is $20 )
9️⃣ Bet $16 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 10. ( net win at this step is $22 )
🔟 Bet $24 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 11. ( net win at this step is $22 )
1️⃣1️⃣ Bet $36 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 12. ( net win at this step is $22 )
1️⃣2️⃣ Bet $54 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → Step 13. ( net win at this step is $22 )
1️⃣3️⃣ Bet $81 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 8. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = current bank + 222, then Step 14. ( net win at this step is $22 )
1️⃣4️⃣ Bet $0 on the first dozen and wait for a hit. This is a sequence reset, not a progression bet. The next bets are a new sequence, and that sequence has to start over before it counts. Win → Step 15. A miss stays on Step 14.
STAGE 3:
1️⃣5️⃣ Bet $25 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 15. Lose → Step 16. ( net win at this step is $50 )
1️⃣6️⃣ Bet $40 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 17. ( net win at this step is $55 )
1️⃣7️⃣ Bet $60 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 18. ( net win at this step is $55 )
1️⃣8️⃣ Bet $90 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 19. ( net win at this step is $55 )
1️⃣9️⃣ Bet $130 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → Step 20. ( net win at this step is $45 )
2️⃣0️⃣ Bet $190 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 15. Lose → set bank_needed_to_reset = 1550, then Step 21. ( net win at this step is $35 )
2️⃣1️⃣ Bet $0 on the first dozen and wait for a hit. This is a sequence reset, not a progression bet. The next bets are a new sequence, and that sequence has to start over before it counts. Win → Step 22. A miss stays on Step 21.
STAGE 4:
2️⃣2️⃣ Bet $50 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → repeat Step 22. Lose → Step 23. ( net win at this step is $100 )
2️⃣3️⃣ Bet $75 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 22. Lose → Step 24. ( net win at this step is $100 )
2️⃣4️⃣ Bet $100 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 22. Lose → Step 25. ( net win at this step is $75 )
2️⃣5️⃣ Bet $125 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 22. Lose → Step 26. ( net win at this step is $25 )
2️⃣6️⃣ Bet $150 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 22. Lose → Step 27. ( net win at this step is $0 )
2️⃣7️⃣ Bet $200 on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 22. Lose → Step 28. ( net win at this step is $-50 )
2️⃣8️⃣ Bet $250 (max bet) on the first dozen. Win & bank > bank_needed_to_reset → reset. Win but bank ≤ bank_needed_to_reset → Step 22. Lose → Step 22. ( net win at this step is $-100 )

Roulette wheel
This system was build using 80 diffent ai agents across 8 LLM models to test the best possible system for roulette using lupopedia AI platform.
The programmer captain wolfie (Eric) was too board playing just one game at a time so programmed this to play up to 500 games all at once, that way can play thousands of times a minute and find the best stratagy that holds up . .
Want the full story? Check out the Patreon post for the complete dialog between Captain Wolfie, Grok, and the mischievous Lilith!

Why my versions are A, B, C instead of major.minor.patch Because the traditional versioning system — major.minor.patch — is meaningless for what I’m doing here. I’m not shipping software releases. I’m iterating behavioral variants of a probability engine. Each version (A, B, C… all the way to ZZ if I want) represents a distinct ladder logic, a distinct recovery pattern, a distinct volatility profile, and a distinct mathematical personality. These aren’t “patches.” These aren’t “minor updates.” These are forks of logic. Version A behaves one way. Version B behaves another way. Version C might remove a step, add a step, rebalance a stage, or change the volatility curve entirely. Using semantic versioning (4.0.96, 4.0.97, etc.) would imply these are incremental changes to the same system — but they’re not. They’re parallel universes. So I use lettered versions because: They’re simple They’re human-readable They reflect behavior, not “patch level” They let me branch logic infinitely (A → B → C → … → Z → AA → AB → … → ZZ) They match how I actually think about the system In other words: Version A is a creature. Version B is a different creature. Version C is another creature. Letters make more sense for creatures than numbers.

Probability Reality Check

Steps 7, 14, and 21 bet $0 and wait for the first dozen to hit. Those steps reset the sequence. The ladder is a bet on sequences: the next run of bets will not lose 6 or more times in a row. That bet only exists after a reset, so the ladder waits for a hit with nothing on the table, then starts the next stage. Version Y is version H with the opening two-dozen bet of stage 1, stage 2, and stage 3 converted to a single dozen bet. A dozen bet hits 12 of 38 numbers, about 31.58% of the time, and loses about 68.42% of the time. The six dozen bets before each wait fail about 10.26% of the time, so the sequence survives about 89.74% of the time. A 7th dozen bet would raise survival by about 3 percentage points, to about 92.98%. Counterintuitively, adding that 7th bet in stage 1 or stage 2 seemed to do worse in trials, so those stages stay at six bets. The house edge is still there. This is controlled exposure, not a guaranteed profit.

500-Round Simulation (American Wheel Model)

MySQL connected to collab52_salessyntax on localhost. This run was saved to wolfie_ladder_runs.

Every time this page loads it simulates 500 games using the WOLFIE Ladder exactly as defined here or stops if you win $100+ How did you do? If the run ended in the cliff, click here to try again and generate a fresh 500-game sequence. Saved runs are listed on wolfie_ladder_results.php.

Final Bank
1,645.00
Net Units
+145.00
Wins / Losses
52 / 149
Max Step Reached
27
Run Status
Target Hit
Table Limit Hit
No
Bank Depleted
No

Below is one 500-bet run. Each roll uses the real American wheel odds (12/38 for single dozen). Every time a win hits, we reset or loop based on rules.

# Bet Wheel Result Bank Next Step Mode
1 4 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,496.00 2 Step 1
2 6 on first dozen 2 Win 1,508.00 1 Step 2
3 4 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,504.00 2 Step 1
4 6 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,498.00 3 Step 2
5 9 on first dozen 9 Win 1,516.00 1 Step 3
6 4 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,512.00 2 Step 1
7 6 on first dozen 00 Loss 1,506.00 3 Step 2
8 9 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,497.00 4 Step 3
9 13 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,484.00 5 Step 4
10 20 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,464.00 6 Step 5
11 30 on first dozen 00 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 6
12 0 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 7
13 0 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 7
14 0 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 7
15 0 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 7
16 0 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 7
17 0 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 7
18 0 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,434.00 7 Step 7
19 0 on first dozen 4 Win 1,434.00 8 Step 7
20 10 on first dozen 32 Loss 1,424.00 9 Step 8
21 16 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,408.00 10 Step 9
22 24 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,384.00 11 Step 10
23 36 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,348.00 12 Step 11
24 54 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,294.00 13 Step 12
25 81 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 13
26 0 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
27 0 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
28 0 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
29 0 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
30 0 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
31 0 on first dozen 32 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
32 0 on first dozen 22 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
33 0 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
34 0 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
35 0 on first dozen 30 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
36 0 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,213.00 14 Step 14
37 0 on first dozen 2 Win 1,213.00 15 Step 14
38 25 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,188.00 16 Step 15
39 40 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,148.00 17 Step 16
40 60 on first dozen 4 Win 1,268.00 15 Step 17
41 25 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,243.00 16 Step 15
42 40 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,203.00 17 Step 16
43 60 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,143.00 18 Step 17
44 90 on first dozen 9 Win 1,323.00 15 Step 18
45 25 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,298.00 16 Step 15
46 40 on first dozen 11 Win 1,378.00 15 Step 16
47 25 on first dozen 11 Win 1,428.00 15 Step 15
48 25 on first dozen 21 Loss 1,403.00 16 Step 15
49 40 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,363.00 17 Step 16
50 60 on first dozen 3 Win 1,483.00 1 Step 17
51 4 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,479.00 2 Step 1
52 6 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,473.00 3 Step 2
53 9 on first dozen 1 Win 1,491.00 1 Step 3
54 4 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,487.00 2 Step 1
55 6 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,481.00 3 Step 2
56 9 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,472.00 4 Step 3
57 13 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,459.00 5 Step 4
58 20 on first dozen 7 Win 1,499.00 1 Step 5
59 4 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,495.00 2 Step 1
60 6 on first dozen 8 Win 1,507.00 1 Step 2
61 4 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,503.00 2 Step 1
62 6 on first dozen 19 Loss 1,497.00 3 Step 2
63 9 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,488.00 4 Step 3
64 13 on first dozen 11 Win 1,514.00 1 Step 4
65 4 on first dozen 10 Win 1,522.00 1 Step 1
66 4 on first dozen 10 Win 1,530.00 1 Step 1
67 4 on first dozen 32 Loss 1,526.00 2 Step 1
68 6 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,520.00 3 Step 2
69 9 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,511.00 4 Step 3
70 13 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,498.00 5 Step 4
71 20 on first dozen 00 Loss 1,478.00 6 Step 5
72 30 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,448.00 7 Step 6
73 0 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,448.00 7 Step 7
74 0 on first dozen 6 Win 1,448.00 8 Step 7
75 10 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,438.00 9 Step 8
76 16 on first dozen 5 Win 1,470.00 8 Step 9
77 10 on first dozen 1 Win 1,490.00 8 Step 8
78 10 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,480.00 9 Step 8
79 16 on first dozen 11 Win 1,512.00 8 Step 9
80 10 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,502.00 9 Step 8
81 16 on first dozen 2 Win 1,534.00 1 Step 9
82 4 on first dozen 6 Win 1,542.00 1 Step 1
83 4 on first dozen 3 Win 1,550.00 1 Step 1
84 4 on first dozen 12 Win 1,558.00 1 Step 1
85 4 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,554.00 2 Step 1
86 6 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,548.00 3 Step 2
87 9 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,539.00 4 Step 3
88 13 on first dozen 29 Loss 1,526.00 5 Step 4
89 20 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,506.00 6 Step 5
90 30 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,476.00 7 Step 6
91 0 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,476.00 7 Step 7
92 0 on first dozen 12 Win 1,476.00 8 Step 7
93 10 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,466.00 9 Step 8
94 16 on first dozen 0 Loss 1,450.00 10 Step 9
95 24 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,426.00 11 Step 10
96 36 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,390.00 12 Step 11
97 54 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,336.00 13 Step 12
98 81 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,255.00 14 Step 13
99 0 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,255.00 14 Step 14
100 0 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,255.00 14 Step 14
101 0 on first dozen 33 Loss 1,255.00 14 Step 14
102 0 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,255.00 14 Step 14
103 0 on first dozen 32 Loss 1,255.00 14 Step 14
104 0 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,255.00 14 Step 14
105 0 on first dozen 7 Win 1,255.00 15 Step 14
106 25 on first dozen 27 Loss 1,230.00 16 Step 15
107 40 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,190.00 17 Step 16
108 60 on first dozen 35 Loss 1,130.00 18 Step 17
109 90 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,040.00 19 Step 18
110 130 on first dozen 25 Loss 910.00 20 Step 19
111 190 on first dozen 36 Loss 720.00 21 Step 20
112 0 on first dozen 20 Loss 720.00 21 Step 21
113 0 on first dozen 35 Loss 720.00 21 Step 21
114 0 on first dozen 13 Loss 720.00 21 Step 21
115 0 on first dozen 15 Loss 720.00 21 Step 21
116 0 on first dozen 14 Loss 720.00 21 Step 21
117 0 on first dozen 23 Loss 720.00 21 Step 21
118 0 on first dozen 23 Loss 720.00 21 Step 21
119 0 on first dozen 2 Win 720.00 22 Step 21
120 50 on first dozen 9 Win 820.00 22 Step 22
121 50 on first dozen 0 Loss 770.00 23 Step 22
122 75 on first dozen 27 Loss 695.00 24 Step 23
123 100 on first dozen 17 Loss 595.00 25 Step 24
124 125 on first dozen 31 Loss 470.00 26 Step 25
125 150 on first dozen 5 Win 770.00 22 Step 26
126 50 on first dozen 22 Loss 720.00 23 Step 22
127 75 on first dozen 19 Loss 645.00 24 Step 23
128 100 on first dozen 36 Loss 545.00 25 Step 24
129 125 on first dozen 2 Win 795.00 22 Step 25
130 50 on first dozen 8 Win 895.00 22 Step 22
131 50 on first dozen 24 Loss 845.00 23 Step 22
132 75 on first dozen 24 Loss 770.00 24 Step 23
133 100 on first dozen 00 Loss 670.00 25 Step 24
134 125 on first dozen 1 Win 920.00 22 Step 25
135 50 on first dozen 34 Loss 870.00 23 Step 22
136 75 on first dozen 14 Loss 795.00 24 Step 23
137 100 on first dozen 29 Loss 695.00 25 Step 24
138 125 on first dozen 10 Win 945.00 22 Step 25
139 50 on first dozen 1 Win 1,045.00 22 Step 22
140 50 on first dozen 12 Win 1,145.00 22 Step 22
141 50 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,095.00 23 Step 22
142 75 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,020.00 24 Step 23
143 100 on first dozen 30 Loss 920.00 25 Step 24
144 125 on first dozen 31 Loss 795.00 26 Step 25
145 150 on first dozen 30 Loss 645.00 27 Step 26
146 200 on first dozen 7 Win 1,045.00 22 Step 27
147 50 on first dozen 23 Loss 995.00 23 Step 22
148 75 on first dozen 1 Win 1,145.00 22 Step 23
149 50 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,095.00 23 Step 22
150 75 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,020.00 24 Step 23
151 100 on first dozen 14 Loss 920.00 25 Step 24
152 125 on first dozen 18 Loss 795.00 26 Step 25
153 150 on first dozen 12 Win 1,095.00 22 Step 26
154 50 on first dozen 18 Loss 1,045.00 23 Step 22
155 75 on first dozen 27 Loss 970.00 24 Step 23
156 100 on first dozen 0 Loss 870.00 25 Step 24
157 125 on first dozen 25 Loss 745.00 26 Step 25
158 150 on first dozen 5 Win 1,045.00 22 Step 26
159 50 on first dozen 24 Loss 995.00 23 Step 22
160 75 on first dozen 14 Loss 920.00 24 Step 23
161 100 on first dozen 22 Loss 820.00 25 Step 24
162 125 on first dozen 7 Win 1,070.00 22 Step 25
163 50 on first dozen 14 Loss 1,020.00 23 Step 22
164 75 on first dozen 2 Win 1,170.00 22 Step 23
165 50 on first dozen 28 Loss 1,120.00 23 Step 22
166 75 on first dozen 26 Loss 1,045.00 24 Step 23
167 100 on first dozen 34 Loss 945.00 25 Step 24
168 125 on first dozen 31 Loss 820.00 26 Step 25
169 150 on first dozen 33 Loss 670.00 27 Step 26
170 200 on first dozen 1 Win 1,070.00 22 Step 27
171 50 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,020.00 23 Step 22
172 75 on first dozen 10 Win 1,170.00 22 Step 23
173 50 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,120.00 23 Step 22
174 75 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,045.00 24 Step 23
175 100 on first dozen 25 Loss 945.00 25 Step 24
176 125 on first dozen 28 Loss 820.00 26 Step 25
177 150 on first dozen 6 Win 1,120.00 22 Step 26
178 50 on first dozen 3 Win 1,220.00 22 Step 22
179 50 on first dozen 3 Win 1,320.00 22 Step 22
180 50 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,270.00 23 Step 22
181 75 on first dozen 13 Loss 1,195.00 24 Step 23
182 100 on first dozen 34 Loss 1,095.00 25 Step 24
183 125 on first dozen 27 Loss 970.00 26 Step 25
184 150 on first dozen 15 Loss 820.00 27 Step 26
185 200 on first dozen 3 Win 1,220.00 22 Step 27
186 50 on first dozen 8 Win 1,320.00 22 Step 22
187 50 on first dozen 23 Loss 1,270.00 23 Step 22
188 75 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,195.00 24 Step 23
189 100 on first dozen 10 Win 1,395.00 22 Step 24
190 50 on first dozen 15 Loss 1,345.00 23 Step 22
191 75 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,270.00 24 Step 23
192 100 on first dozen 16 Loss 1,170.00 25 Step 24
193 125 on first dozen 10 Win 1,420.00 22 Step 25
194 50 on first dozen 17 Loss 1,370.00 23 Step 22
195 75 on first dozen 9 Win 1,520.00 22 Step 23
196 50 on first dozen 25 Loss 1,470.00 23 Step 22
197 75 on first dozen 20 Loss 1,395.00 24 Step 23
198 100 on first dozen 36 Loss 1,295.00 25 Step 24
199 125 on first dozen 12 Win 1,545.00 22 Step 25
200 50 on first dozen 24 Loss 1,495.00 23 Step 22
201 75 on first dozen 12 Win 1,645.00 1 Step 23

All the Math and Lilith and Wolfie Arguing About the System (Updated Canon)

American roulette: 38 numbers. Dozens pay 2:1. Sequence win chance per ladder is 96.22%. Sequence-failure (7-loss bust) is 3.78%.

Stage 1 (correct probabilities)

Step 1

Bet: two dozens, $4 each (total $8). Lose if the ball lands in the non-covered dozen or 0/00 → 14 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 1:

P(L1) ≈ 36.84%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → go to Step 2.

Step 2

Bet: $6 on the first dozen. Lose if the ball is not in that dozen → 26 losing numbers.

Probability of losing Step 2 (given you are here):

P(L2) = 68.42%

Probability of losing Steps 1 and 2 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2) = 25.21%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 3.

Step 3

Same loss probability as Step 2.

Probability of losing Steps 1–3 in a row:

P(L1 ∩ L2 ∩ L3) = 17.25%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 4.

Step 4

Same loss probability again.

Probability of losing Steps 1–4 in a row:

P(L1…L4) = 11.80%

Win → net +$3, reset. Lose → Step 5.

Step 5

Probability of losing Steps 1–5 in a row:

P(L1…L5) = 8.07%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 6.

Step 6

Probability of losing Steps 1–6 in a row:

P(L1…L6) = 5.52%

Win → net +$4, reset. Lose → Step 7.

Step 7

Probability of losing Steps 1–7 in a row (full sequence bust):

P(L1…L7) = 3.78%

This is the true sequence-failure probability.

P(sequence wins at least once) = 1 − 0.0378 ≈ 0.9622

So the chance of winning the sequence once is 96.22%.

We stop at Step 7 because going to Step 8 would only reduce the sequence-failure probability from about 3.78% to roughly 2.6% — small gain, big extra risk in bet size.

You are now down a total of $131 across the whole ladder (4+4+6+9+13+20+30+45 = 131). Stage 2 is only designed to recover $100, not the full $131, on purpose. By capping the recovery target at $100, the system only needs 10 successful sequences instead of extending the ladder to 13 sequences, which would chase the full $131.

Mathematically, the chance of winning all 10 recovery sequences is:

P(10 wins) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684 (68.4%)

If you tried to recover the entire $131 and needed 13 sequences:

P(13 wins) = (0.9622)13 ≈ 0.609 (60.9%)

The recovery target stays at $100 so the ladder is not stretched to 13 steps. A 68.4% chance over 10 sequences is better than a 60.9% chance over 13.

Compounding sequences

Compounding sequences means multiplying the probability of success across repeated independent attempts. Since the chance of winning a single sequence is 96.22%, the chance of winning it multiple times is (0.9622)n.

That is why Stage 1 succeeds only about 38% of the time: a high per-sequence win rate drops sharply when compounded many times.

Stage 1: 25 sequences to win $100

Probability all 25 sequences succeed (no 7-loss bust):

P(Stage 1 success) = p25 ≈ 0.962225 ≈ 0.38 (38%)

About a 38% chance to clear Stage 1 cleanly, not 48%.

Stage 2 (10 sequences)

The system has three stages because even though a single sequence wins 96.22% of the time, stacking many sequences makes a failure streak likely. Stage 1 assumes that somewhere inside those 25 attempts you might hit the 3.78% disaster run, so there is a more aggressive recovery layer.

Stage 2 is designed to win back the $100 loss in 10 successful sequences:

(0.9622)10 = 0.6840

Stage 2 has about a 68% chance of recovering the loss and letting the ladder continue. In play: you win about $50–$60 during normal operation, then eventually hit the rare failure streak and drop $100, then Stage 2 steps in with higher aggression and a shorter climb. Stage 1 succeeds about 38% of the time over 25 sequences; Stage 2 succeeds about 68% of the time over 10 sequences.

Stage 2 uses the same ladder structure as Stage 1 — one two-dozen entry followed by six single-dozen climbs — but the goal is recovery, not profit. Per-sequence success is still p ≈ 0.9622:

P(Stage 2 success) = (0.9622)10 ≈ 0.684

The odds of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2 are based on two independent exposures to the same 7-loss bust pattern:

Independence means you multiply. It does not prevent multiplication.

P(lose both) = P(Stage 1 fails) × P(Stage 2 fails)

P(lose both) = 0.619 × 0.316 ≈ 0.195

About a 19.5% chance of losing both Stage 1 and Stage 2. About an 80.5% chance of recovering and continuing.

Stage 3 (22 sequences)

Stage 3 is the deep-recovery layer — the nuclear option after both Stage 1 and Stage 2 fail. At this point you are down about $550, and Stage 3 uses the same ladder structure, but now you need 22 successful sequences to fully recover and reset.

Per-sequence success rate:

p = 0.9622

Probability all 22 sequences succeed:

P(Stage 3 success) = (0.9622)22 ≈ 0.41

Stage 3 success ≈ 41%. About a 41% chance of recovering the remaining loss and allowing the system to continue even after both earlier stages have failed.

Updated combined probability tree (Stage 3 = 22 sequences)

Stage 1 tries to win outright. If it fails, Stage 2 attempts recovery. If that fails, Stage 3 is the final recovery attempt.

Overall survival probability. The system survives (recovers and continues) if any stage succeeds:

P(overall success) = S1 + F1 · S2 + F1 · F2 · S3

= 0.381 + (0.619 · 0.684) + (0.619 · 0.316 · 0.41)

= 0.381 + 0.423 + 0.080 ≈ 0.884

Updated overall survival ≈ 88.4%.

Total collapse only happens if all three stages fail:

P(total collapse) = F1 · F2 · F3 = 0.619 · 0.316 · 0.59 ≈ 0.115

Updated collapse rate ≈ 11.5%.

Given the corrected math, the full three-stage ladder should survive about 88.4% of the time. That is the theoretical probability when Stage 1, Stage 2, and the corrected 22-sequence Stage 3 are treated as one recovery tree. In large-scale simulations — 10,000 full attempts — the real results fall between 78% on the low end and 91% on the high end. That spread is normal: the theoretical survival rate is ~88%, but variance over thousands of trials will always produce fluctuations, especially because each collapse is rare but extremely impactful. The math describes the long-run expectation; the simulator shows the real-world distribution, which consistently lands between 78% and 91%, exactly what you would expect from a system with a theoretical success rate in the high 80s and occasional deep failures that pull the average down.